【主题】Termination of Listing Contracts: A Competing Risk Survival Analysis

【主讲】田超岳副教授，西南财经大学经济学院

【时间】2017年11月7日（周二）上午10:00-11:30

【地点】上海财经大学凤凰楼502会议室

【主办】上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院投资系

【主持】陈杰教授 上海财经大学投资系系主任

【主讲人介绍】田超岳现为西南财经大学经济学院副教授，2010年获得乔治华盛顿大学经济学博士。他目前的主要研究领域是房地产金融。其他研究兴趣包括房地产经济，城市和区域经济学以及计量经济学。田超岳的发表主要出现在房地产领域的国际权威期刊如Real Estate Finance，Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics上。

【摘要】We examine the terminations of listing contracts of residential properties. In contrast to previous studies looking only at terminations through sales, we study both sales and withdrawals. Using a large sample of listing contracts from a Virginia MLS, we estimate a competing risk proportional hazard model. We find that the probability of sale displays a concave shape. We find the hazard of withdrawal increases overtime, indicative of sellers becoming impatient as time passes. Furthermore, we find house price appreciation, boosts the likelihood of sale and reduces the chance of withdrawal. More volatile house prices and higher local unemployment rates increase the likelihood of withdrawal.